The National Hurricane Center of the United States indicated that the probabilities of formation for this system are 70 percent in the next 48 hours.
A new tropical depression is expected to be declared in the next few hours, followed by severe storm warnings in the Caribbean. About 150 miles east of Barbados, there is a low-pressure zone with a high probability of becoming a tropical depression.
"A tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight as the low-pressure zone moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour," said the NHC (National Hurricane Center). English) in its forecast of 8 in the morning, it is also reported that the rains and thunderstorms associated with this system have intensified in the last hours. Given the environmental conditions, further, development is to be expected.
The NHC further indicated that the chances of formation for this system are 70 percent in the next 48 hours. According to the NHC's prediction, the disturbance would advance towards the Lesser Antilles tonight and then head towards Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tomorrow, with greater intensity. By midweek, it would be arriving in the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
Tropical storm warnings are likely to be issued in the next few hours for all islands in the path of the disturbance.
In the heat of hurricane season, as is often the case, this is not the only disturbance in the sights of meteorologists. Another area of low pressure, 160 kilometers east of the Lesser Antilles, although with less probability of development given the environmental conditions. According to the NHC forecast, this system has only a 10 percent chance of developing in the next 48 hours and a 20 percent chance in the next five days.
In August, the hurricane season tends to get more intense, due to the high temperatures of the seawater, after the hottest moment of summer, and a decrease in the winds. The peak of the season occurs in mid-August.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently updated its forecast for the remainder of the year. This is a highly active season, with a forecast of 15-21 named storms. Of these, at least between 7 and 10 would end up being hurricanes, of which 3 to 5 would be of great intensity.
This forecast is called that of a, particularly active season. Compared to historical indices, if what is expected occurs, this 2021 would be 65 percent above the average.
In any case, nothing indicates that the historic peak reached in 2020 would be gone. All records were broken with the formation of 31 tropical cyclones, 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes, and seven major hurricanes.
So far, in 2021, the first storm formed in May and was named Ana. This was before the season officially started. In June, Bill, Claudette, and Danny were created. The first hurricane, named Elsa, was generated in July. The subsequent riot will be called Fred.