Economists Predict Recession, Trump Disagrees -- Who Has a Point?

Economists Predict Recession, Trump Disagrees -- Who Has a Point?987
source: Pixabay

According to a study released Monday, 34% of the economists interviewed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), claimed they believe the slow economic growth in the United States will result in recession in 2021.

That is an increase from 25% of the economists surveyed in February. As many as 2% expect the recession to begin this year, while 38% stated it would occur in 2020.

Earlier last week, President Trump has already dismissed the ongoing concerns about a recession. He spoke to the press Sunday in his Bedminister club in New Jersey. Trump once again highlighted he did not see any recession coming our way.

He gave an example with China saying that the situation there was much worse and their economy was doing ''very poorly.'' The President cited a report according to which China's economy is experiencing now its worst time in 27 years.

A journalist asked him whether he is prepared for a recession, Trump replied he was prepared for everything. He went on claiming that the U.S. consumer is rich and ''loaded up with money'' because of his politics and the tax cuts.

The economists have already expressed concerns that the high budget deficit and Trump's tariffs could harm the economy in the long run.

Washington imposed taxes on imports on many trade partners among which China, Europe, Mexico, and Canada. According to the President's administration, the tariffs would lead to favorable trading conditions. In reality, our allies stroke back with imposing their tariffs on U.S. goods.

The trade between Washington and Beijing has plunged. Last week, the President announced the delay of the implementation of about 60% of an additional $300 billion of Chinese reports for the Christmas season.

The economists interviewed by the NABE were not optimistic about the successful outcome of the U.S. - China trade war. Only 5% of them were convinced that it would result in a reasonable trade deal. 64% said that a superficial agreement was possible, while 25% of the respondents asserted they did not expect any agreement.

Between July 14 and August 1, the NABE interviewed 226 economists who are mainly working for corporation and trade associations. Generally speaking, most of the economists have disapproved Trump's approach to the economy.

On the other hand, economic signs do look positive for now. New jobs are added at a steady pace, the unemployment rate remains close to a 50-year low, and the consumers are optimistic.

What do you think? Do you agree or disagree with Trump's statement that our economy is doing good?