Unlike high-scoring sports like rugby and soccer, soccer matches are more likely to be a draw. In this article, Pinnacle Soccer expert Mark Taylor will show you how to predict which games could end in a draw. Is it "easy to say"? Read it to see the results.
From 2006 to 2016, around 26% of Premier League matches ended in a draw. The most common tie score was 1: 1 (42% of all ties). This is followed by 0 to 0 (32%) and 2 to 2 (22%).
In other words, in the Premier League season, about a quarter of the game ends in a draw. Draws are also an important part of betting in the handicap betting market.
Given the venue, it is intuitive to understand that games between two relatively equal teams are likely to have a draw.
When the winning team plays the bottom team at home, the odds of ending in a draw are generally estimated to be around 14%. On the other hand, in a match between teams ranked in the middle of the ranking, the probability of a tie jumps to around 30%.
This can be confirmed by applying the Poisson distribution, which is widely used in statistical analysis, to two teams that are nominally equal.
However, although the pure Poisson approach underestimates tie rates in soccer and requires adjustment, the methodology is relatively simple.
Calculate Premier League lottery fees
Imagine a Premier League match between two teams of the same strength. On average, a total of 2.5 goals are expected.
Based on a rough estimate of the Poisson distribution, there is a 29% chance that both teams will miss their targets. Therefore, the probability that this match will end in a 0-0 tie (unadjusted) is calculated by multiplying these two probabilities.
On the other hand, the odds of a one-on-one tie are slightly higher, around 13%, in line with actual Premier League data.
Calculate these numbers for all possible scores, and for 0-0, 1: 1, 2: 2, both teams add up all the odds for a typical Premier League of the same strength. By doing this, you can find the overall probability of a tie. It happens during a match.
In this example (the Poisson distribution is not very different from reality and does not change), a tie is expected with a probability of about 27%.
If both teams of the talented team are tied and tend to go up, there may be some oversights in predicting the probability of a tie. And most misinterpret both teams' scoring predictions.
The lower the total number of expected goals in a match, the more likely it is that individual teams will score fewer points.
In an environment where mass goal production is difficult (when the total number of expected goals in a match between two equal teams is only 2.2), each team has a 29% chance of losing a goal. In the above case. It rises to 33%.
As a result, the odds of matches ending 0-0 increased from 8% to 11%, and the overall draw rate (unadjusted) exceeded 29%.
In other words, it can be difficult to pick a game that tends to end in a draw, but if you look at a team with similar abilities that lacks offensive power but has good defensive play. It can be said that there is.
To predict a match that ends in a draw
However, even if you can identify potential ties in this way, the fact that a match may end in a draw does not necessarily reflect the odds offered.
It is also important to know that very good teams can be late in the middle of the season.
For example, a team may seem like a sweepstakes expert because there are so many low-scoring games. But that can be an advantage. That trend doesn't always last, and future gifts that aren't really worth it may seem worth it.
The Premier League teams that won the most draws in the 2006-2016 season were typical mid-size clubs like Stoke, Westbrook and Aston Villa.
All of these teams draw an average of around 16 games per season. The difference is clear, as the league average for the same period is shy for 10 games.
However, the number of draws for these teams, who should have been good at drawing, fell from 16 games the following season to just over 10 games, which is very close to the league average.
The same happened with strong teams like Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham and Chelsea. They seem to have avoided games that ended in a draw.