As Stacey Abrams builds her second campaign for four years, she is looking at Georgia's largest, smaller and whiter voters than the one that made her the last loser, according to her specially provided aides.
It is one of the reasons Abrams is confident the outcome will be different, despite the national political turmoil that has shifted to Republicans after Joe Biden's election as president last year and Jon Ossoff and Georgia's Raphael Warnock in the Senate in January. .
Approximately 1.3 million Georgians have registered to vote since filing his first application in 2018. Forty-seven percent of them are people of color, 31.6 percent of whom are black and 43 percent of them under the age of 30 - parties that often turn to Democrats - according to an Abrams campaign analysis. About 250,000 of them have registered since the 2020 elections.
And although voters do not register with Georgia parties, campaigning for information available about new registrars estimates that 45 percent are likely to be Democratic Alliance voters and 28 percent are likely to be Republican voters, and the remaining 27 percent are undivided due to lack of data.
"There is a clear idea over the last decade of who has registered since 2018 - who should vote for Stacey in this non-finalist list," said campaign spokesman Seth Bringman.
The challenges for Abrams are history. She will be the first woman and first white person to win the Georgian state, and both well-established history and new election evidence suggest that Democrats who have won over time will have to win the wind on the backs of the Republicans.
Biden's approval rate is down 42.3 percent in the RealClearPolitics voting rate, and Republicans made huge gains in the Virginia and New Jersey elections last month. But the Abrams camp believes that change in those provinces, which is run by whites, will not be enough in Georgia because voters are different.
Campaign analysis found that 52 percent of registered voters in Georgia are people of color; The comparative population figures in Virginia and New Jersey are 25 percent and 17 percent, respectively.
That stops competition not only between the candidates but also between the tendencies of the voting patterns of the region and what seems to be an important momentum for the Republicans nationally. Georgia was once a stronghold of the Republic, but a series of Democratic Alliance victories inspired by Abrams 'registration and open-air campaigns have shown Democrats' competition.
Some Republicans have reason to fear that former President Donald Trump's involvement in the controversy could undermine the party's prospects. Trump has called for the removal of Gov. Brian Kemp, former Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., And his Trump counterpart, are expected to announce this week that he will run in the by-elections with Kemp.
"If that happened, it would be the worst bloodbath that Georgia has seen since Sherman took over Atlanta," University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock said Friday, referring to the burning of the city by Union General William Sherman in 1864.
Kemp is already facing a challenge from Rep. Vernon Jones of the province, a former Democrat who switched to the GOP last year.
All parties say they expect the national election to be imminent, and the Cook Political Report, Cook Political Report, which is credited with electoral issues, shifted the race from "leans Republicans" to "ssup" when Abrams announced his application on Wednesday.
Abrams lost Kemp by 54,723 votes in nearly 4 million cast in 2018. Kemp is caught in the crossfire of Trump because he refused to intervene on behalf of Trump when Georgia voters gave Biden their 16 election votes last year. It was a squeaker, decided by 11,779 votes out of more than 4.9 million votes.