The United States has warned that the climate crisis is a threat to global security and details

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source: nytimes.com

The United States has warned that the climate crisis is a threat to global security and details which countries are most committed.

The White House, the Pentagon, and the intelligence community believe that environmental change can provide opportunities for China and Russia to enjoy new conflicts and mentioned 11 nations at risk, four of the Latin American.

On Thursday, the United States published comprehensive assessments of the climate crisis, prepared by the White House, the American intelligence community, and the Pentagon, which concluded that environmental changes would exacerbate global security threats in the long term.

According to the set of publications, there is a growing concern in the US security system about the consequences of climate change based on Washington's strategic interests, as new opportunities would arise for rivals such as China and Russia. Furthermore, in states such as North Korea and Pakistan, nuclear instability could increase.

The intelligence community had never so far conducted a National Intelligence Estimate linked to the weather. Instead, these are reference documents created by industry agencies intended to inform decision-making and analysis throughout the government.

The document concludes that in the coming decades, political and natural disasters (floods, fires, hurricanes, droughts) are likely to increase geopolitical tensions that add to the political crisis. In addition, 11 countries have been identified as being at high risk, as they are particularly vulnerable: Afghanistan, Colombia, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, India, Iraq, Myanmar, North Korea, and Nicaragua. And Pakistan.

Intelligence officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity under agency rules said that climate change could indirectly affect the fight against terrorism by pushing people seeking food and shelter towards violent groups. The intelligence community needs more scientific insights and integrating climate change into its analysis of other countries.

For its part, the White House report focuses on migratory flows caused by climate change. It warns that extreme weather conditions can trigger conflicts and forced displacement, which countries like Russia and China can exploit. In the absence of a strong US and European strategy to tackle climate-related migration, China, Russia, and other states can seek to gain influence by providing direct assistance to affected countries, Joe Biden's government alerted.

"We assess that climate change will increasingly exacerbate risks to America's national security interests as physical impacts increase and geopolitical tensions increase over how to respond to the challenge," the document states. It also concludes that "current policies and commitments are insufficient" to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement. Its recommendations suggest monitoring disasters that can generate climate refugees and orienting humanitarian assistance so that affected populations can cope with disasters without displacement. In addition, it means examining legal protections for refugees.

The United Nations estimates that up to 200 million people may be displaced by climate worldwide by 2050.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon's Defense Climate Risk Assessment addresses the issue from a military perspective and highlights that China and other countries could take advantage of rising seas and melting glaciers. "Climate change affects most of the activities of this department, and this threat will continue to have increasing implications for the national security of the United States," said Secretary of Defense Lloyd D. Austin III in the foreword to the report of the Pentagon.

The three reports coincide with a growing concern about the US security system. They are published days after the COP26 in Glasgow.

The Biden administration is eager to show itself faced with the impacts of climate change ahead of the crucial UN climate conference, which begins later this month. This is especially true as the White House struggles to get congress members to agree on multi-million dollar measures to curb climate change, a crucial part of its domestic agenda.