With just two weeks remaining and polls indicate an extremely close race in Virginia's gubernatorial elections, with an poll released on Wednesday revealing that the race is tied.
"There are a lot of indicators that this is a close race, and it fits the basic pattern of how Virginia gubernatorial races have performed in the past -- the race often breaks against the White House," said Kyle Kondik, an election analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
Democrat Terry McAuliffe has led Republican Glenn Youngkin since the beginning, but the gap has dwindled in recent weeks , and is now just within the error margin in a number of recent polls.
Terry McAuliffe: I have huge bold plans to take this state forward.
OCT. 20, 202108:48
Youngkin has been gaining momentum as undecided voters get off the fence, and Democrats are rushing to build off their base ahead of the November. 2 election, and convince suburban suburban voters of the fact to believe that Youngkin is more danger than he appears.
"Just like in midterm elections, this is an off-year election, and the nonpresidential party often has an enthusiasm edge," Kondik declared. "Many polls have shown that the GOP base is more fired up than the Democratic one."
An Monmouth University survey released Wednesday revealed that the race was not even with registered voters, between 46 and 46 percent which is a change from the 5 percentage point advantage McAuliffe had in the Monmouth survey earlier in the month. Republicans have also boosted their lead in enthusiasm.
The largest swing was among independents, who are now split for Youngkin 48 percent in favor of 39 percent following giving McAuliffe an advantage on the September poll. McAuliffe's advantage in women's polls also diminished from a 14-point lead in September to a four-point lead today.
"Suburban women, especially in Northern Virginia, have been crucial to the sizable victories Democrats have enjoyed in the commonwealth since 2017," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. "However the support of these women isn't at the same amount this time around. This is partly due an inclination to issues for these voters and a decrease in enthusiasm among party loyalists."
The latest polling from Fox News, CBS News, Christopher Newport University and Emerson College all tell similar tales, even though McAuliffe maintains his lead in every single one of the two dozen public polls conducted in the last three months, with the exception of two polls conducted by Republican pollsters.
"Since we polled these races in late August, Democratic leads have shrunk, and the contests for governor and lieutenant governor now stand within this survey's margin of error," Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo director of research for the Judy Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University in Virginia in a note detailing the October. 8 . poll. "Independent voters have shifted in a significant direction toward the of the three Republican candidates. Republican supporters are much more committed to voting more than Democrats."
Of course, polling has experienced difficulties in recent years , with numerous notable failures due to the decline in percentages of voters who are who are asked to take part in surveys , as well as a variety of other issues.
Democrats are quick to point out that, for example, the Monmouth surveys revealed a shrinking race leading up to the last governor's race the final Monmouth survey that showed Democrat Ralph Northam ahead by one point. Northam won by 9 points.